Definition for Risk in Insurance: Objective Risk, Subjective Risk
Definition for Risk in Insurance
There is no one definition for risk in insurance. Economists, behavioral scientists, risk theorists, statisticians, and actuaries all of them have their own view of risk. But, risk historically has been defined in terms of uncertainty. Based on this concept, risk is defined as uncertainty concerning the occurrence of a loss.
For example, the risk of being killed in a car accident is present because uncertainty is present. The risk of lung cancer for smokers is present because uncertainty is present. The risk of flunking a college course is present because uncertainty is present.
Employees in the insurance industry often use the term risk in a different manner to identify the property or life that is being considered for insurance.
For example, in the insurance industry, it is common to hear statements such as “that driver is a poor risk,” or “that building is an unacceptable risk.”
Finally, in the economics and finance literature, authors often make a distinction between risk and uncertainty. The term “risk” is often used in situations where the probability of possible outcomes can be estimated with some accuracy, while “uncertainty” is used in situations where such probabilities cannot be estimated.
1 As such, many authors have developed their own concept of risk, and numerous definitions of risk exist in the professional literature.
2 Because the term risk is ambiguous and has different meanings, many authors and corporate risk managers use the term “loss exposure” to identify potential losses. A loss exposure is any situation or circumstance in which a loss is possible, regardless of whether a loss occurs.
Examples of loss exposures include manufacturing plants that may be damaged by an earthquake or flood, defective products that may result in lawsuits against the manufacturer, possible theft of company property because of inadequate security, and potential injury to employees because of unsafe working conditions.
Finally, when the definition of risk includes the concept of uncertainty, some authors make a careful distinction between objective risk and subjective risk.
Definition for Risk in Insurance:Objective Risk
Objective risk (also called degree of risk) is defined as the relative variation of actual loss from expected loss . For example, assume that a property insurer has 10,000 houses insured over a long period and, on average, 1 percent, or 100 houses, burn each year. However, it would be rare for exactly 100 houses to burn each year. In some years, as few as 90 houses may burn; in other years, as many as 110 houses may burn. Thus, there is a variation of 10 houses from the expected number of 100, or a variation of 10 percent. This relative variation of actual loss from expected loss is known as objective risk.
Objective risk declines as the number of exposures increases. More specifically, objective risk varies inversely with the square root of the number of cases under observation . In our previous example, 10,000 houses were insured, and objective risk was 10/100, or 10 percent. Now assume that 1 million houses are insured. The expected number of houses that will burn is now 10,000, but the variation of actual loss from expected loss is only 100. Objective risk is now 100/10,000, or 1 percent.
Thus, as the square root of the number of houses increased from 100 in the first example to 1000 in the second example (10 times), objective risk declined to one-tenth of its former level.
Objective risk can be statistically calculated by some measure of dispersion, such as the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation. Because objective risk can be measured, it is an extremely useful concept for an insurer or a corporate risk manager. As the number of exposures increases, an insurer can predict its future loss experience more accurately because it can rely on the law of large numbers. The law of large numbers states that as the number of exposure units increases, the more closely the actual loss experience will approach the expected loss experience. For example, as the number of homes under observation increases, the greater is the degree of accuracy in predicting the proportion of homes that will burn.
Definition for Risk in Insurance:Subjective Risk
Subjective risk is defined as uncertainty based on a person’s mental condition or state of mind .For example, assume that a driver with several convictions for drunk driving is drinking heavily in a neighborhood bar and foolishly attempts to drive home. The driver may be uncertain whether he will arrive home safely without being arrested by the police for drunk driving. This mental uncertainty is called subjective risk.
The impact of subjective risk varies depending on the individual. Two persons in the same situation can have a different perception of risk, and their behavior may be altered accordingly. If an individual experiences great mental uncertainty concerning the occurrence of a loss, that person’s behavior may be affected.
High subjective risk often results in conservative and prudent behavior, while low subjective risk may result in less conservative behavior. For example, assume that a motorist previously arrested for drunk driving is aware that he has consumed too much alcohol. The driver may then compensate for the mental uncertainty by getting someone else to drive the car home or by taking a cab. Another driver in the same situation may perceive the risk of being arrested as slight. This second driver may drive in a more careless and reckless manner; a low subjective risk results in less conservative driving behavior.


